Report of the U.S. investment bank The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. predicts that South American rivals Brazil and Argentina will play in the final of this year’s world football championship.
Economists of famous banking group, Jan Hatzius, Sven Jari Stehnová and Donnie Millar, have created a forecast based on analysis of 14,000 international matches played since 1960, as well as with the help of a number of other statistical data. It is predicted that host of the World Cup, Brazil will win in the final against Argentina with 3-1 and win the title of the world champion for the sixth time. According to the Goldman’s analysis, Brazilians have even 48.5 percent chance for the title, Argentina is right behind them with 14.1 percent, and chances of Germany are quite lesser – 11.4 percent. They believe that it is not a surprise that the most successful national team in football history is the biggest favorite for winning the title, especially since the World Cup is played in Brazil, but range of advantages of Brazil in their model is great according to all parameters.
They relied their predictions for each match on a regression analysis of all official matches from 1960 to present time. Basic variables were taken from the Elo rankings, because they found that this ranking list was statistically the most powerful variable in their model, unlike better known FIFA list. To create this model they used the following parameters: average number of goals of the national teams in the last ten matches, but only within the official competitions; the average number of goals conceded in the last five official international matches; frequency of participation of national teams at World Cups since 1960, where they took into account only those countries that had sufficient number of participations (including Brazil, Argentina, Spain, Germany, England, France, Italy and Netherlands); variable that indicates whether the team played at home; variable that indicates whether the team played on their continent. Thus, according to their prediction, on the way to the finals Brazil will eliminate the Netherlands, Germany and Uruguay, while Argentina will be better than Ecuador, Portugal and Spain.
Predicted Knockout Round by Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research:
Otherwise, four years ago, the Goldman Sachs predicted in the same way that Brazil was the first favorite for the title, but then with a 26.6 percent chance. In reality, Spain became the world champion to which this American banking institution gave the status of the second favorite with 15.7 percent of chance for the title.